Key Factors Shaping Supply and Demand

An overview shot of semi trucks and trailers parked at a warehouse.

Motor carriers, private fleets and shippers are navigating an increasingly complex operating landscape. Economic pressures, shifting demand patterns and evolving trade policies are shaping the need for transportation and warehouse capacity, and the ability to adapt to capacity fluctuations is crucial to maintaining operations.

Factors Influencing Capacity Fluctuations

Several interconnected factors influence the supply and demand for freight as well as capacity.

The Economy: Economic growth typically leads to increased demand for goods, driving up the need for transportation services and warehousing space. However, economic slowdowns or inflationary pressures can reduce consumer spending and business expansion, cooling demand for goods and slowing business growth.

Consumer Confidence: Economic optimism directly impacts consumer spending, and confident consumers are more likely to spend money on everything from clothing to cars. Consumer confidence also affects spending on services, travel and entertainment. A shift in consumer sentiment, whether positive or negative, can lead to fluctuations in freight demand.
Housing and Construction: Housing starts, existing home sales and construction are significant drivers of freight demand. On the housing side, there is an ongoing need for raw materials for new construction, as well as products for home renovations, upgrades and moving. Infrastructure improvements, such as highway and bridge construction, also fuel demand for freight.

Manufacturing: Manufacturing levels and factory output influence the amount of inbound and outbound freight at production facilities. Manufacturing can also impact the overall economy, with the National Association of Manufacturers estimating that for every $1.00 spent in manufacturing, there is a total impact of $2.64 to the overall economy.

Seasonal Surges: Trucking has a variety of peak seasons. Historically, the most notable peak typically occurs in the fall as retailers stock up for the holiday shopping season. Even though seasonal surges may be brief, they can strain capacity.

Weather Events: Severe weather events, such as hurricanes or snowstorms, can disrupt expected freight flows and create sudden spikes in demand. Consumers may rush to stock up on groceries or other essentials ahead of an event, and emergency supplies or reconstruction materials can also increase the need for trucking services.

Global Trade: Geopolitical disruptions, trade agreements, tariffs and customs regulations can impact the flow of goods, which directly influences the demand for trucking and warehousing.

Trucking Trends: Freight rates play a crucial role in influencing trucking capacity. When rates are high, new carriers may enter the market, adding capacity. As rates fall, financial pressures may increase, causing some carriers to leave the market, reducing capacity.

Solutions To Address Capacity Fluctuations

Given the significant number of variables that influence both the supply of and demand for capacity, fleets need to remain agile, especially in an uncertain operating environment.

There are several tools and strategies to help businesses prepare for capacity fluctuations:

Flexible Leases: Full-service leases provide a flexible way for fleets to replace equipment and adjust capacity without committing to long-term investments in purchased vehicles. This enables businesses to scale their operations up or down in response to demand fluctuations without the capital expenses associated with purchasing new assets.

Short-Term Access: Rental agreements can provide even more flexibility, allowing fleets to increase capacity for days, weeks or months. If longer-term needs arise, the switch to leasing becomes a welcome option.

Owned Capacity: The used truck market can offer a cost-effective alternative to new equipment for fleets that prefer to own their assets. Adding used trucks allows fleet operators to meet increased demand quickly. New equipment can come with extensive lead times, but used trucks are often readily available.

Logistics Solutions: Third-party logistics providers help businesses optimize their supply chain and ensure that they have access to the right amount of transportation and warehousing capacity when they need it. Some, like Penske, also have tools to improve efficiency, increase visibility and enable data-driven decision-making.

Brokerage Services: Freight brokers offer flexible solutions to manage capacity in real time. For shippers, brokers provide immediate access to an extensive network of vetted carriers to fill short-term or unexpected gaps in a shipper’s capacity. Brokerage can also be a valuable tool for fleets that need to access freight.




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